Minor Mafia #4 - Day 4

I thought it was absurd not to lynch today but Slushee said some very interesting logic

Thee_Slushee wrote:

Sadly, as town, our odds aren't too good. Even after we Lynch ScreamingHawk, the other remaining mafia will definitely get rid of me next night phase. So it'll be 3v1 come next morning and without a cop...Pretty much a 25% guess at who the other mafia is.

The only other option is no vote, and then it'll be 3v2 come sunrise. I most likely would survive the night in this scenario, because as soon as I'm dead, my cop role will be revealed. You guys would then all know that I was telling the truth, and therefore lynch ScreamingHawk the following day resulting in 2v1 the following morning (i.e. better odds than 3v1. 25% v 33% in guessing the other mafia).
I'd be alive to share my findings, which might actually help in the 2v1 faceoff, but they'd probably only keep me around to cause heaps of confusion and make everyone doubt what I say...

This is the logic of voting night instead of lynching today, we have better odds at getting the last mafia. But come tomorrow we need all 3 of the townies to vote ScreamingHawk or we're screwed... I have faith in you guys

From what I read I like Thee_Slushee logic
Unless I really am really dumb and can't see what's actually happening.

But I'm pretty keen to roll with it

You going to vote then matt lol? Vote night bro

Lol this really does seem like the craziest plan, since I already know who one of the mafia is and am deliberately choosing not to lynch them...but the logic makes sense, right? I'm so scared that I'm missing something, haha

But seems like we're naturally gonna be heading this way anyway if Orange or Oless don't check in, since there is no lynch majority. So fingers crossed it works out!

Guys, what are you doing?

Slushee is deliberately misleading you with the maths again.

Right now the chance of hitting mafia is 50:50 (me or Slushee).  The chance of hitting mafia tomorrow will be the same!! Except tomorrow we need 100% town accuracy while today we only need 75% town accuracy.
AND Today if we vote we can afford to have one townie make the wrong decision. Tomorrow IF ANY 1 TOWNIE VOTES WRONG THE MAFIA CAN BOTH VOTE AND WIN! WHY ARE YOU VOTING FOR THIS TO HAPPEN?

Ok I'm going to quote slushee again

Thee_slushee wrote:

Okay guys.... so I just realized something. If town votes wrong today, it is INSTANT GAME OVER.  If we vote off someone innocent, mafia will kill someone else during the night, and then it's 2v2: Mafia wins.

It might look like I'm completely siding with slushee but her logic speaks the truth. Either way it's going to be night since there isn't enough votes.

But that does change tomorrow. Its the same thing tomorrow but even worse since we aren't allowed to make any mistakes. Today we can afford one mistake. Oh well. Its too late anyway. Vote or not it looks like we are going to night phase.

*doesn't change tomorrow

Ahhh but it does change tomorrow! I would have investigated someone else so would have more info. Or I would die, guaranteeing my previous accusation. But yeah, either way, night is happening it looks like. Unless everyone comes online in the next 5 minutes and start talking...

Alright! Everybody shut up and gimme your action!

Deadline is midnight tonight, day 2 will start early if you're onto it.

No we can't afford a mistake today, if we lynch a townie today, mafia kills one tonight then its 2v2 so it's game over.

Since its yo first time, I'm a let it slide.

But to reiterate "everybody shut up and give me your action"

It was a dark and overcast night.... wrote:

"I'm worried about what this person is planning.."
  "..."
"Don't worry, I'll handle it"

--------------------------------------------------------------------

"I thought you said you'll handle it!"
"I did!"
"well obviously not!"
"but...but...."

--------------------------------------------------------------------
"Well, I suppose it was a 50/50 anyway and it's good to get them out of the way now.

1st)ScreamingHawk
2am)Happy
THREE)orange
4)mattgoku
5!)oless
6)Slushee
7)Shu

No deadline right now, vote night if you want to or vote to lynch someone. Votes reset. 4 to lynch/go to night.

.....nobody....died? OMG YAY! But....whaaaa? But OMG YAY!!! I'm so confused right now, but very very happy

Okay, new bit of info for you: Shu isn't mafia.
Sorry about investigating you, I kinda had this thought that maybe you and ScreamingHawk were in cohoots, and making it seem like you guys were at odds. So if you off'd me, you could seem like the good guy since you weren't associated with Screaming, so would stay sneakily in the shadows...but turns out it wasn't that, haha.

Oh, and Lynch ScreamingHawk

Lynch Thee_Slushee

Shu wrote:

No we can't afford a mistake today, if we lynch a townie today, mafia kills one tonight then its 2v2 so it's game over.

I mean we can afford one townie to vote a townie without losing. When it's 3v2 every townie has to vote correctly.
Looks like no kill though so I won't dwell on yesterdays appalling town decisions.

Also looks like there is a doctor in play. Doctor please don't say who you are. There is never a need for you to say that you are doctor.

I'm inclined to believe Slushee that Shu is town. Simply because the me/Slush showdown means neither of us will die in the night phase. Now that Slush has confirmed Shu is town (mafia knows all), it's going to be easy for her to kill Shu tonight and then say "see look I was right therefore I am cop".

Sorry about the lack of posts, haven't had time to write out a thought, or where I stand.

I'm leaning toward believing slushee, but I have my reservations, since theres no evidence, aside from your word and a reaction/suspicion from screaming (which you could have just picked up on and used). Especially since mafia can role claim cop, since well they know who the actual mafia are, riggghhhhttt??? Do the mafia communicate in this forum-ey thing with pm-ing??? Cause with the mafia I play in person, you wouldn't verbally communicate at all (just aggressive hand gestures)

Theres been very little real information let loose, so I haven't had much to add. You guys are saying most of the stuff I coulda thought of anyway. Just from what I see, everyones jumping on board with the cop claim, without sorta giving it a second to stew. I'm just a more reserved attempt-idly objective type of player. We don't know enough to go around lynching willy nilly. we don't have the deadline so talk it out a bit more, and if all else fails vote night. it'll put us back in the same boat we're in now.

We're still not allowed a wrong lynch vote, we can't rely on the dr. to save the person agian... I'm assuming that just happened, unless something weird happened. I don't think the mafia woulda gone for either screaming nor slushee, since one of them is bound to be mafia and killing either would mean certain death for the other. Leaving me, orange, matt or shu... one of us is also a mafia, ssoooo keep that in mind.

Oh and also any information given/added by screaming or slushee is almost entirely unreliable and useless (untill one of them dies), unless its about the cop role, or defending against lynching. Just thought i'd add that incase either of them try to lynch me for talking at them, before i can check back in.

Yeah, I'm guessing that there is a Doctor in the house, since it looks like mafia did go ahead with a kill but it didn't happen. Doc should definitely stay in the shadows, since we don't want mafia knowing who that is... but if anyone else has any solid information, it would be them. They would know who mafia targeted last night, so would know who definitely isn't mafia. My guess is that the doc tried to save me (as I role claimed cop), but that is most definitely a guess.

...not saying that they should come out with that information directly! Just saying it's not just me and mafia that knows things now...

I really am curious to hear what the rest of town thinks (orange + mattgoku + Shu) about all this. You guys know where ScreamingHawk and I stand. He is right about one thing: it's a very good chance that we won't be taken out during the night in order to keep this confusion alive. Well, he won't be taken out anyway because he's scum, but that's besides the point

It's true that there is no proof that slushee is a cop and yeah im still weary of her but i think there is a more likely chance that she is telling the truth and would probably side with her in the end if no other evidence comes to light.

Anyways if doctor saved slushee last night they are able to confirm that slushee is telling the truth right? Should doctor reveal themselves then or not?

Anyway let everyone talk first before we really decide anything but i think going to night again might be better.

Btw is there such thing as mafia choosing not to kill at night?

Doc could equally have saved me... But like has already been established, if either myself or Slushee are attacked at night, the other will be implicated. I don't think mafia would have targeted me so probably picked someone else, which means doc must have picked someone else too. So doc will know who one townie is, but they do more good being silent then talking right now. If they out themselves, they will be killed the next night for sure.

Yeah there is such a thing as mafia not attacking at night but the only reason they would do that is to claim doc later. I don't know though. Seems a bit risky. More likely there is a doctor in play.

Ooh plot twist.
Sorry for my absence. Christmas shindigs and all.

And there was dialog of what I assume was mafia talking to each other (?) so I guess they tried to make an attack.

I am leaning towards believing Slushee though. Initially I thought Screaming was cop, but he didn't say anything after Slush claimed. So yeah.

Man this is all so trippy.

But yeah I'm still leaning towards believing Slushee is cop detective.
(Cause who else would be?)
And we can be quite sure that if Screaming isn't mafia, then Slushee for sure is.

Which leaves what Oless said as true, that the second mafia is one of us four less vocal players.

And I'm pretty sure that if we don't correctly lynch one of the mafia today, then it's GG tonight.

It's a 50/50 between the big two, and 25% chance each between the small four.

#YOLO
Lynch ScreamingHawk

I'm gonna go for another night to see if any more new information comes up, it is still logically the best option

Vote for night

Hmmm....the more I think about the Doctor not saying anything in order to keep their identity hidden...the more I start to question that logic.  

Doctor, other than Cop, is the only other person with valid information right now. They know who was targeted last night, and therefore who is innocent. If they died tonight without saying anything, sure their role would be revealed, but who they saved last night would be lost. Then tomorrow it'll still be my word vs ScreaminHawk's, so we're back in the "no concrete info" awkwardness state again...

If Doctor dies tonight but DID say who they saved the previous night, the person they saved is guaranteed innocent. The only downside is painting a target on their backs, but wouldn't it actually provide a sort of protection for them since their death would provide concrete info? Mafia could false claim Doctor, but that wouldn't gain then much, right? I mean, since the real Doctor will know who is lying, and if the false claim comes from anyone other than ScreamingHawk, then it insta-reveals the other Mafia! The only terrible outcome would be a false Doctor claim and the real Doctor to not also claim....which hopefully doesn't happen.
Also, if Doctor reveals themselves, that is one less person for me to investigate tonight, so higher chance of hitting the other Mafia  

Well, I'm basing this on the assumption that the Doctor saved Cop (me) last night because really, what were the odds that Mafia and Doc targeted the SAME PERSON by complete chance....1/4 x 1/6? O.o
Methinks it wasn't complete chance
...or if Mafia actually messed up last night and there actually isn't a Doctor >.<  

Does this make sense to anyone? Or am I missing something?

Btw, Doctor should continue to save Cop for the rest of the game no matter what anyone (Mafia) says to try to convince otherwise!

Slushee, your logic really does make the most sense, and based on all your arguments I've decided to trust you 99% and to follow what you say

Something everyone seems to be forgetting though is that the Doctor may be one of those horrendously selfish ones, who just saves themselves. Because without actually knowing who to trust, saving anyone else who may potentially be mafia (or just another townie) could come at the expense of their own life, and therefore any future saves.

Which it would have if he/she wasn't selfish haha.

True the doctor would know that they themselves are innocent, and that the person they saved is also innocent, but if the doctor was targeted last night and saved him/herself, then he/she doesn't actually know anything more than you all do now.

Despite me not actually knowing anything, I still think that Screaming is one of the two mafia.
And lynching him off now would mean that we can finally for sure know whether Slushee is cop or not.

If she is clean, then I know that Slush, Shu and myself are clean. Screaming would be gone, leaving either Oless or Orange as the last mafia. Slush checking either of the two would reveal to her which of them is mafia.

Then the survivors can lynch the fished-out-mafia during the day, and it's a good day

If I die tonight then it would verify my claims.
Doctor should definitely save the cop, but meh, he might just be selfish and save himself again.

If anyone thinks that Screaming isn't mafia, please say so.

Otherwise I still hold to my above action.
Lynch ScreamingHawk

Don't just go to sleep again cause one of us is going to die tonight lol.